Wednesday, 21 January 2009

Forecasting mobile BB market growth to 2014

I'm nearing completion of a comprehensive forecast of the mobile broadband market in Europe. We'll have a report out in time for Mobile World Congress and we'll be running some significant promotions around the release of the figures, but in the meantime I thought I'd tantalise you with a few predictions. By 2014...
  • There will be over 150 million mobile broadband connections in Europe

  • The growth markets of Russia, Turkey and Ukraine will account for over 30 million subscribers

  • The majority of mobile broadband will be prepay and complementary to a fixed connection, driven by large numbers of occasional casual users unprepared to abandon the fixed DSL/cable connection

  • ARPU will decline on average by 10% per annum, driven down by increasing competition and increasing numbers of low-spending casual subscribers

Stay tuned for more data. The report will be out in about 2-3 weeks.

*in this context our definition of Europe is all countries, including Russia, Ukraine and Turkey

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